UK Construction Market Data
Where construction prices are heading and why. Covers the main types of UK market data, where to find them, how a QS uses them and how to read forecasts with care.
UK construction market data tells a quantity surveyor where prices are heading and why. Every cost plan, tender report and inflation allowance depends on it. Yet the data is spread across government statisticians, BCIS, trade bodies and the major cost consultants. Each publishes on its own timetable and on its own basis.
This page brings the main sources together. It explains what each one measures, how often it is published and when to use it. It ends with practical guidance on applying the data in cost plans, tender checks and contract price adjustment.
Types of UK Construction Market Data
Market data falls into four broad groups. Mixing them up is one of the most common errors in cost planning.
Building cost indices. These track the cost of a contractor’s inputs, such as labour, materials and plant. They show what is happening to the cost of building, not what clients are paying.
Tender price indices. These track the prices clients actually pay when contracts are let. Tender prices include contractors’ overheads, profit and their view of risk. They can move very differently from building costs. In a busy market, tender prices often rise faster than costs as margins widen. In a weak market, contractors may absorb cost increases to win work.
Forecasts. These project tender prices, costs or construction output over the next few years. They are what a QS uses to set inflation allowances.
Activity data. This measures how busy the industry is, through output, new orders, contract awards and purchasing surveys. Activity is a leading indicator. Falling workload usually feeds through to softer tender prices a few months later.
Where to Find UK Construction Market Data
The sources below are grouped by type. The links go to each publisher’s main page for the series rather than to a single edition, so they should stay current.
Official Statistics and Indices
| Source | What It Covers | Frequency | Best For |
|---|---|---|---|
| BCIS | Tender price index, building cost index, five-year forecasts, location factors | Quarterly indices, forecasts several times a year | Cost plan inflation, rebasing historical costs, regional adjustment |
| ONS output price indices | Interim construction output price indices by sector | Quarterly | Official measure of price change across sectors |
| ONS construction output | Output and new orders in Great Britain | Monthly | Tracking industry workload by sector |
| Department for Business and Trade | Building materials prices, brick and cement deliveries | Monthly | Spotting material price movements early |
Industry Forecasts and Activity Surveys
| Source | What It Covers | Frequency | Best For |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction Products Association | Output forecasts by sector | Quarterly | Understanding demand by sector over two to three years |
| S&P Global UK Construction PMI | Purchasing managers’ survey of activity, orders and costs | Monthly | An early signal of turning points |
| Glenigan | Project starts, contract awards and forecasts | Monthly reviews, annual and periodic forecasts | Pipeline and workload by region and sector |
Cost Consultants’ Market Reports
The major consultancies publish their own tender price forecasts, drawing on their live project data. They are listed here in alphabetical order.
| Publisher | Report | Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| Arcadis | UK Construction Market View | Quarterly (seasonal editions) |
| Fulkers | Construction Market Report | Quarterly |
| Gardiner & Theobald | Market Intelligence and Tender Price Forecasts | Quarterly |
| Rider Levett Bucknall | Construction Market Intelligence, UK Edition | Quarterly |
| Turner & Townsend | UK Market Intelligence | Quarterly |
How a QS Uses Construction Market Data
Inflation in cost plans. Under NRM 1, the cost estimate is prepared at a stated base date. Inflation is then added as a separate allowance. Tender inflation covers the period from the base date to the tender date. Construction inflation covers the period from tender to the midpoint of construction, where the contract is fixed price. Tender price forecasts drive both. Our NRM 1 cost planning guide shows how the allowances sit in the cost plan.
Rebasing historical costs. Cost data from past projects must be brought up to date before it is used. Divide the current tender price index by the index at the original tender date, and apply that factor. Then adjust for location using regional factors. Use a tender price index for this, not a building cost index, because the historical figures were tender prices.
Checking tender returns. When tenders come back above or below the pre-tender estimate, market data helps explain why. A gap that matches the market’s movement since the estimate was prepared is very different from one that points to a pricing problem. See our guide to tendering in construction for the wider evaluation process.
Contract price adjustment. On fluctuating price contracts, published indices adjust the price during construction. JCT formula fluctuations and NEC secondary Option X1 both work this way. The indices used must be named in the contract, so the QS needs to know exactly which series applies.
Explaining estimate accuracy. Market conditions are one of the main reasons outturn costs differ from early estimates. Our article on factors affecting estimates and cost accuracy covers this in more depth.
Reading Forecasts With Care
Forecasts from different publishers rarely agree exactly. That is not a flaw. They use different data, different sectors and different assumptions. A few checks help avoid misreading them.
- Check the measure. Make sure you are comparing tender prices with tender prices, not with building costs.
- Check the basis. Some forecasts are year-on-year changes. Others compare annual averages or fourth quarter to fourth quarter. The same market can look quite different on each basis.
- Check the scope. A London forecast or a sector forecast may not suit a regional housing scheme. Infrastructure often moves differently from building.
- Look at the range. Comparing several forecasts gives a sense of the consensus and the uncertainty. Where they differ widely, the inflation allowance carries more risk and the cost plan should say so.
- Use the latest edition. Forecasts are revised regularly. Always record which edition and date you relied on.
Used well, UK construction market data turns an inflation allowance from a guess into a reasoned, auditable judgement. That is exactly what a client, a funder or an APC assessor expects to see.
Last reviewed: October 2026.